Sunday, February 27, 2011

International Market

So far this season it appears we have been in an international drought.
The best and most expensive so far has been Miguel Gonzales costing $15.3 million.  He looks to be a decent prospect.  After Gonzales the next most expensive prospect was Hector Garrido coming in at $8.5 million.  After last season which seemed to be a shortstop bonanza this season has been desert like. 

Draft Prep

Draft Prep opens in the AM.  The fun begins.
Power Ranking V2
This weeks rank;(last week); change; Team; (record); week's record
1(1) NC Tampa Bay (27-9) 14-5
2(6) +4  St. Louis (25-11)14-4
3(13) +10 Cleveland (23-13)13-5 
4(8) +4   Chicago AL (20-16)10-9 
5(7) +2   Mexico City (23-13)14-4
6(3) -2    Syracuse (21-15) 12-7
7(5) -2    Ottawa (22-15) 11-8
8(12) +4   Vancouver (22-14) 13-6
9(11) +2   Huntington (22-14) 11-7
10(10) NC Anaheim (23-13) 12-7 
11(14) +3 Colorado (18-18) 9-9
12(25) +13 San Diego (16-20) 11-7
13(2) -11 Fresno (21-15) 9-10
14(9) -5  Chicago NL (20-16) 8-11
15(4) -11 Hartford (20-16) 8-10
16(20) +4 Detroit (17-19)11-8
17(19) +2 Florida (19-17) 10-9
18(28) +10Washington (16-20)11-7
19(29) +10San Francisco (18-18) 10-8
20(17) -3  Charlotte (16-20) 9-10
21(23) +2  Scranton (18-18) 10-8
22(24) +2  San Juan (15-21) 7-12
23(26) -3   New York NL (14-22)7-12
24(18) -6   Little Rock (14-22) 4-14
25(15) -10 Indianapolis (18-18) 5-13
26(16) -10 New York AL (11-24) 4-14
27(22) -5   Atlanta (14-22) 6-13
28(21) -7   Salem (16-21) 6-13
29(27) -2   Las Vegas (15-21) 7-11
30(31) +1  Seattle (12-24)8-10
31(30) -1   Baltimore (12-24) 6-13
32(32) NC Charleston (9-27) 6-12

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Monday, February 21, 2011

Player Profile: Roger Weston

Rogers Weston is a future Hall of Famer, the Ruth all-time leader in hits by over 4oo and is 5th all time in walks.  Part of his success is longevity and his ability to accumulate but he has had success enough to stay in the games.  He has been traded three times (trades included Bobby Valentin, Andre Reese, Randall Anderson, Ismael Samuel, Edgar Padilla, Damaso Renteria, and Danny Lennon).  His player cardd says he has played 21 seasons and only 17 in the majors but his stats only show 44 minor league games (6 in season 3 and 38 in season 18).  He has 60 minor league hits and 65 post season hits.

He is a 7 time all star, 4 time silver slugger and one time World Series champ. The most he ever made in a season was $9.4, this was during what was probably his worst statistical season in his prime.  He played everywhere in the field.  2b was his primary position with 1082 games but he also had 632 games at 3b, 482 at ss, 219 as a rf, and 211 as a DH.  Another 108 games are split between cf and lf.  His overall rating of 90 at its peak made him an all-star.

The question now with Weston is what next.  He is on the waiver wire currently and sits 3 hits shy of 3500.  He is 39 years old and his last two contracts have been for the league minimum.  There is not much of a chance of him contributing much to a contender but he still has the ratings to be slightly useful off the bench versus righties.  The last remaining question is whether his hits record will ever fall.

Poll Results

AL North- Syracuse 42%, Ottawa 28%, Chicago 14%, Cleveland 14%

AL East- New York 50%, Scranton 25%, Indianapolis 25%, Baltimore 0%

AL South- Charlotte 38%, Mexico City 38%, Little Rock 23%, Florida 0%

AL West- Vancouver 69%, San Francisco 15%, Salem 15%, San Diego 0%

NL North- Chicago 35%, Hartford 30%, Detroit 25%, Seattle 10%

NL East- St. Louis 71%, Washington 9%, Atlanta 9%, New York 9%

NL South- Huntington 50%, Tampa 42%, San Juan 7%, Charleston 7%

NL West- Anaheim 46%, Fresno 33%, Las Vegas 13%, Colorado 6%

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Weekly Power Rankings Season 20 Week 1

Below are the first of the power week of the season.  Instead of relying on votes, as I did two seasons ago, I analyzed the numbers and schedules.  In most cases the rankings are in line with what you would expect based on divisional rankings and overall records.  There are a few whose record does not reflect what the team is really capable of doing. 
 Power Ranking V1
1. Tampa Bay (13-4)
2. Fresno (12-5)
3. Syracuse (9-8)
4. Hartford (12-6)
5. Ottawa (11-7)
6. St. Louis (11-7)
7. Mexico City (9-9)
8. Chicago AL (10-7)
9. Chicago NL (12-5)
10. Anaheim (11-6)
11. Huntington (11-7)
12. Vancouver (9-8)
13. Cleveland (10-8) 
14. Colorado (9-9)
15. Indianapolis (13-5)
16. New York AL (7-10)
17. Charlotte (7-10)
18. Little Rock (10-8)
19. Florida (9-8)
20. Detroit (6-11)
21. Salem (9-8)
22. Atlanta (8-9)
23. Scranton (8-10)
24.San Juan (8-9)
25.  San Diego (5-13)
26. New York NL (7-10)
27. Las Vegas (8-10)
28. Washington (5-13)
29. San Francisco (8-10)
30.  Baltimore (6-11)
31. Seattle (4-14)
32. Charleston (3-15)

Friday, February 18, 2011

Injury Hit in Huntington

Sammy Seneca was injured yesterday and will be out the rest of the season.  While Seneca is not the best player on the team he is still a major contributor and an important player in Huntington's hopes to win the World Series.  Perhaps the biggest blessing in the injury is that it was a hamstring injury and it did not impact his bat in any way.  His speed and health ratings took a big hit but he should return ready to hit as well as he was before the injury.

REviewing the other players hurt so far this offseason there have been a few other big injuries none of the others have been for as long or for a player of Seneca's stature.

March Madness tournament

I believe the link below will allow other to join.

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joinprivategroup_assign_team?GID=4155&P=hbd

Fantasy Baseball Auction League

Info below

You have been invited to join brian's custom league in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball, Auction League.
In order to join the league, follow the link above or go to game front page, click the "Sign Up Now" or "Get Another Team" button and follow the links to "Join a Custom League". When prompted, enter the League ID# and password below.
League ID#: 78490
Password: Ruth

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Interest?

Anyone interested in joining a March madness tourney pool?   There would be no limit on the number of entrants.

A second option will be a fantasy baseball league.  I would like to create a yahoo fantasy baseball draft league with the intention that all 12 owners would be Ruth League owners.  It will be an auction league, using the yahoo auction feature.  If interested wither respond to the comments here or send me a trade chat.

No Hitter

Congrats to Jesse Post and Terry Hunt on the combined no hitterHawk Myatt also deserves some credit for calling a great game and chipping in 2 RBI.  He may have deserved more the the player of the game honors than Oswaldo Franco.  You could argue for one of the pitchers but considering they pretty much split the workload it gets harder.  The defense deserves some credit as well, no plus plays were recorded but there were 10 ground outs (2 to 1b), 4 stikeouts, and 13 fly-outs, foul-outs or line-outs.  The ball was certainly in play and a defense with less range could not have done this.



Sadly since this was not a complete game no-hitter it will not appear on either players' player card.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Player Spotlight: Ernie Randall

Ernie Randall has gotten off to a fast start.  Through 7 games Randall has a .536 BA, a .606 OBP He has been fast riser in fantasy leagues but is a down to earth guy.

When asked about his success so far he seemed disappointed, "They are just stats man.  I am more disappointed with out overall record.  Sure I am happy to be playing well but if we aint winnin' it aint worth a hill of pickles."

The last few seasons life for this franchise have been disappointing.  They won the World Series in season 13 and then last season saw a huge drop off in wins.  Team owner billyhowell sold the team and they were relocated.  With the relocation comes new hope.  One fan even remarked, " If this team doesn't win the division I will eat a sock"  While the jury is still out on the team's early season performance the potential is still there.

Part of the early season struggles can be attributed to Mike Harvey who, as one of the team's biggest run producers, really hasn't gotten the stick going.  Then there are pitchers Anthony Crespo, Ryan Edwards, and Valerio Gonzales who have been hit hard so far.  They will turn it around.

Randall remains upbeat, "We get'em back.  Isa long season and we catch up and win our fair rewards." 

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Hall of Fame results (total votes last year)

Season 19- voting results

Season 20- My ballot

Hall of Fame Class of Season 20
Hawk Walker18 (14)- For contributions to the game and his 2 Cy Young Awards and 4 All-Star appearances.  See blog entry and jersey pictures.

Failed to gain entry
Matty Dotel14 (new candidate)- See blog entry on Dotel for the details.  Campaign starts now.  If Sammy Manzanillo is a Hall of Famer then there is no doubt Dotel belongs in the Hall.  See blog entry.

Willis Little 13 (5)-  Saunders has more saves, Little was dominating.  Now that Baxter has passed him has he missed his chance?  See old blog entry

Hanley Decker 12 (9)- 3 votes closer.  2 Cy Young awards, mid-career creation.  Dominant for a time period.  He should get in eventually.

Brutus Bryant 6 (6)- I like Brutus, he was a workhorse and did whatever was asked of him.  A poor man's Donnie Brown.

Midre Aquino 5 (4)- 7 All-Star teams and one Cy Young Award.  He also had 2885 K's in his career.

Alex Ortiz5- Maybe the most remarkable thing about him is that he hit 40 hr in 277 ab in half a season in Colorado in season 5.

Alex Belliard 5 (5)- I am going to look very closely here next year to see how good he was.  See blog entry.

Benito Romero 4 (3)- Coors effect.  I do not want Dante Bichette in the Hall.  Career OPS over his career.

Luis Johnson 4 (2)- Very good pitcher, was he great?  I wish I could figure out how to calculate +statistics to compare him to the league at the time. See blog entry.

Tom Saunders 3 (1)- I am not a fan of his numbers.  There are more dominating relievers and after this season he will no longer be the career record holder for saves.

Kevin O'Connor 3 (5)- 13 years in the majors and over 500 homers.

Sherman Lawton 3 (0)- Over 700 home euns and he only gets a vote from me.  See blog entry.

Russ Maurer 2 (1)- Top 15 pitcher in the league at one point.  By that I mean he was not top 10.  He did win a Cy Young Award.

Anthony Abercrombie 2 (1)- played SS more than any other position and 2700 hits is impressive.  He was more of an accumulator that a dominator, he only had 2 all star appearance.
Peter Belinda 1 (2)- Very strong stats but played a position that is dominated by bats.

Timo Kondou 1 (1)- Three all-star appearances on the tail end of his career has the "Pride of Kabul" wishing there was a Veteran's Committee.

Trey Ransom 1 (1)- A DH who caught some.  No awards.

Tyrone Beltre 1 (1)- Another primary ss.  4 all star appearances and 4 silver sluggers to accompany that bug ballpark advantage

Luis Benitez 1 (1)- Benitez was an Armstrong and did some good things.  When I hear his name however I always think, choker. He turned it off in the playoffs.

Rob Adams 0 (1)- so long support. 


Stump May 0 (0)- See blog entry.




Next season I pledge not to nominate anyone who I know will not get in.  That includesStump Mayand Valerio James.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Hawk Walker Jersey Day

The Hawk Walker Hall of Fame write up mentioned a Hawk Walker Jersey.  I believe this was one of the first signs that this game is addicting.

 Must be Hawk Walker Appreciation Day

Season 20 Preview: AL West

Vancouver Anti Tankers
Season 19 Record: 98-64
Budget for players: $100m budgeted, $8.5m left available
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense:  8 of 10
Bench:  7 of 10
Defense: 8 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes:  Vancouver is above average offensively and defensively at every position.  There is no weakness in the lineup.  They are better versus righties than lefties but are still solid on that side of things.  From my look over the closest to a weakness would be the lack of a true MVP candidate type.  They are a true team in that regard.  The pitching staff is like the offense, solid al around but no cy young types.  Gus Holt could get in the fireman awards discussion in a few years but he still has a lot of growth to go, can he do it in the majors?  The pitcher I like best has got the ratings to be a starter but isn't used as a starter, I am curious why.  The one thing I have noticed on several teams is the disregard for traditional ratings for relievers.  I would love to have someone explain to me the philosophy behind having 8 or more pitchers with stamina over 65.  10 + pitching prospects in the minors all of whom can contribute at the ML level. Gus Holt has potential to be very good as does Bill Rice.  On the positional side of things there are solid prospects for C, SS and 2b on the way.  but not as much depth as on the pitching side of things.  Tike Wirth is in the minors and would repesent an upgrade for over half the teams I looked at.

San Francisco Flaxseeds
Season 19 Record: 77-85
Budget for players: $86m budgeted, $18m left in cap space.
Pitching Staff:  7 of 10
Offense:  6 of 10
Bench:  6 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: A
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes:  The catchers game calling skills are suspect but not awful.  The starters bat more than makes up for it and his other defensive ratings are good.  The offensive core of the team is aging and the SS are there ore for their gloves than their bats.  This is a team in transition on offense and Damaso Lima is the future face of the franchise and a potential ROY candidate this season.  I like their pitching staff, not a weak arm in the bunch.  Damaso Lima is developing and will be very good.  Jorge James is one of those guys who straddles the line between starter and reliever and is ideally suited for a tandem rotation.  There are 12 pitching prospects to keep an eye on with B.J. Kemp being the most special in the group.  Davey Ramirez could be in the majors today and Vic Sherrill is the pretty close and represents the future at the hot corner when Bennett moves on.  This is the deepest farm system I have seen on both the pitching and positional side of things.  The one weakness would be the lack of a SS or CF prospect but that will be addressed in other ways and the guys in place now at SS will be good for a few seasons and there is another 2b who could slide over to CF since Lima isn't going anywhere.

Salem Crack Whores
Season 19 Record: 78-84
Budget for players: $102 M, budgeted, 100k leftover
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense:  4 of 10
Bench:  4 of 10
Defense: 4 of 10
Minor League Grade: C+
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes: Cristobal Quixote is in the last year of his contract and should not be playing 3b any more.  The SS and CF are average to slightly above average for their positions.  The LF should be playing RF and the RF should be playing LF.  The offense will struggle some against righties.  Sam Graves looks to be the strongest offensive player on the team but his historic performance does not come close to what I would have expected based on his ratings and salary.  Jae Song is worth keeping an eye on.  Jim Decker is one of the best pitchers in the league but his W/L record is a reflection on the offense.  5 or 6 pitchers with potential in the minors.  Cristobal Hernandez is an all-star in the makings.  The offensive prospects are thin and noe have as high a ceiling.  The one who caught my eye was Freddie Monroe.  Monroe is not an all star but can be a solid major leaguer hitting 25+ homers for several seasons.

San Diego Chargers
Season 19 Record: 82-80
Budget for players: $103m budgeted, $10M remaining
Pitching Staff:  4 of 10
Offense:  2 of 10
Bench:  0 of 10
Defense: 3 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+
Divisional Finish:4
Notes:  I will be the first to admit that I am probably the worst person to review this team.  San Diego is one of the parks that you can build a team specifically for and that has been the case historically for this team.  I would look at the roster and wonder how they won so many.  That said I know where to start and that is with the fact that there are  9 players rostered who are positional players.  There is no bench at all.  The grades above reflect the lack of options and depth.  That is a problem when you look closely at Javier Park who could reasonably expected to play at a decent level for 81 games so long as he doesn't get hurt. The catcher is there for his defense, meaning he won't hit.  The 1b has a great mustache but is really a platoon player.  The infield defense is fine and so is CF but LF and RF will struggle especially considering the home park.   15 pitchers on the roster and 10 have a stamina of 60+.  Cameron Carter is in the last year of a huge contract and will be trade bait I assume.  I count 6 pitchers who I would not trust in road games.  10 minor league arms could hit the majors in the next few years with 4 potential all-stars led by Jumbo Hundley.  7 potential major league position players only Willie Barrios could be viewed as a full timer.  The. rest will need to platoon.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Season 20 Preview: AL South

Florida Villians
Season 19 Record: 76-86
Budget for players: $85m budgeted, no room left
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense:  4 of 10
Bench:  4 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: C+
Divisional Finish:4
Notes:  The SS is a gold glove candidate but he will not be able to play every day and there is no backup.  I am not sure what Ron Orr's role is since his glove and arm limit where he can play and his bat limits his offense.  There are 5 batters I really like and 3 I do not like at all.  The onse I do not like provide more harm than the good provided by those I do like. There is no true CF on the roster.  The best pitcher got hurt in his first pitching appearance of the season.  There are some good pitchers on the team and then there is Andrew Ashby.  A couple duds at the ML level. 4 pitching prospects and 5 positional prospects show potential for major league service, 2 look to be average to above average across the board.

 Mexico City Momentum
Season 19 Record: 83-79
Budget for players: $117m budgeted, 700k cap space.
Pitching Staff:  7 of 10
Offense:  7 of 10
Bench:  6 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: C-
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes:   Victor DeSoto's ratings are impressive.  I can imagine he has been frustrating for more than one owner.  The offense for the team is impressive.  They would be fun to watch.  Good team speed to go with the offensive skills.  The big thing with this team is there is no apparent weakness, depending who is catching.  The biggest weakness is the lack of a true top end player to pound it. Kordell Mintz is a fan favorite and the team has planned a Kordell Mintz hair night duing which every fan will be given a wig that looks like Kordell's hair.  The SP are decent the bullpen is very good.  The minors lack any real positional prospects.  Every one I thought I saw turned out to be a 27+year old DH.  There were about 4 pitchers with potential but none really worth wasting time on.

Little Rock Erratic Chows
Season 19 Record: 80-82
Budget for players: $117m budgeted, $1.5m left
Pitching Staff:  5 of 10
Offense:  5 of 10
Bench:  5 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: C
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes:  If anyone is interested in adding Yamil Veras go ahead and make an offer.    On offense they are fine, not the best and not the worst.  They have a couple really good players, one of whom is available, if you want to take on an albatross of a contract.  Truely there are worse contracts then that one, partly because Veras is good.  The key to beating this team is throwing a lefty at them.  The pitching staff is ok, there are better ones and there are worse ones.  It is good to see Mark Lui still hanging around.  In the minors the real highlight is a few of the pitching prospects.  There is not a lot to say about the offensive ones other than that they are offensive. Felipe Gonzalez is on the WW right now and may rejoin the pitching staff or get sent to the minors.

 Charlotte Clippers
 Season 19 Record: 84-78
Budget for players: $102M budgeted, $1m left
Pitching Staff:  3 of 10
Offense:  7 of 10
Bench:  7 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: D
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes:  Josias Cortez is closing in on the all-time HR record and he has not declined enough yet for the record to be seen as out of reach. J.D. Golub could be improved upon in CF but other than that this is a solid team with the bat and with the glove. Mario DuBose should have better numbers than he does.  Duffy Westbrook is the SP5 which shows how good the staff could be.  The bullpen looks very good too.  The pitching prospects are fewer than some other teams and those who caught my eye in my first look through were revealed to have flaws when I looked beyond my primary scan.  Not many offensive prospects either.

Season 20 Preview: AL East

New York Crunch II
Season 19 Record: 76-86
Budget for players: $71m budgeted, 39 spent
Pitching Staff:  3 of 10
Offense:  5 of 10
Bench:  5 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: A
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes:  The biggest hole on offense is the lack of a true power hitter.  There is some power there and Shawn Koskie is a player anyone would want but after him is a 34 year old rf on the decline and 24 year old catcher who is still developing. Rogers Weston is now 12 hits from 3500.  The defense is pretty strong. This pitching staff is going to see some ugliness.  Josh Moore was once the hottest prospect in the game, now he is finishing it up on an also ran.  Really the staff has some solid contributors but in all I count 7 of the 13 as players who probably shouldn't be in a major league pitching staff and certainly not all in the same one.  At least 13 positional prospects and 13 pitchers have a shot at making the majors and some of them will dominate.  This is the best minor league system I have seen from top to bottom.  When I did this team first I assumed they would finish fourth.  Then I did another team.

Indianapolis Inconceivables
Season 19 Record: 67-95
Budget for players: $58m with $13m left in cap space at the moment.
Pitching Staff:  3 of 10
Offense:  4 of 10
Bench:  4 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: B
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes: Geoff Ruffin will be good one day.  The offense is a collection of average to below average players.  The only area where they will excel is SS defense.  The rest of the defense is fine.  The pitching staff has some decent prospects and some bad vets.  There are a few good prospects, Vladimir Reyes may be the best of them.  There are quite a few flawed prospects who look great until you notice that one rating that makes you take a pass.

 Scranton Coal Crackers
Season 19 Record: 77-85
Budget for players: $70m with $5m left in cap space at the moment.
Pitching Staff:  3 of 10
Offense:  4 of 10
Bench:  4 of 10
Defense: 9 of 10
Minor League Grade: D
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes:  The catchers are on the roster for their gloves and appear to be so bad with the bat you would want to DH for them and let the pitchers bat.  I am kidding of course.  One of them had an OPS over .800 last season in 200 likely platoon or fill in at bats.  The other guy was possibly the worst batter in the league and will only face lefties.  Rafael Santana is just like the one for the mets in the mid-80's. This offense is unbalanced, there is no middle ground.  The batters are either really good or really bad.  I think they will struggle to score.  The defense is very strong.  14 pitchers on this staff is probably 2 to many.  They are a good bunch of arms and with that defense behind them will keep Scranton in a lot of games. The best pitchers in the minors all struggle with control.  Timo Burgess is a mystery.  His projections look good to me but I also see no way he meets them from where he sits now.  The two best positional prospects are DHs and there are better aging vets on the FA market who can fill the role better than them.  This minor league system needs some work.  Although I am picking this team for first place I am not expecting a winning record.

 Baltimore Bandits
Season 19 Record: 49-113
Budget for players: $70m with $2.5m left in cap space at the moment.
Pitching Staff:  2 of 10
Offense:  3 of 10
Bench:  3 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: D+
Divisional Finish: 4
Notes: No way Harold Cashman maintains that 100 speed platooning at catcher.  The defense meets or exceeds just about every reccomended rating.  The offense has two players with a VR over 70 and only 5 over 60.  They will struggle to score.  While we are bust ripping the offense the pitchers got jealous because they expected me to be harshest to them.  I understand why they feel that way but I am not going to beat a dead horse. Einar Ordonez says it best. Trevor Donovan is not too far off the all-time home run record, sadly he is toiling away in AAA.  He is also the second best positional prospect in the minors.  On the pitching side there were a couple possibilities.

Season 20 Preview: AL North

Syracuse Snow Belt
Season 19 Record: 99-63
Budget for players: $99m with $2m left in cap space at the moment.
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense:  7 of 10
Bench:  5 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: C+
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes:  The on certainty in this league, Syracuse will win the division.  Last season was only the second time the team has not reached 100 wins in a season since the league began 20 seasons ago.  1b,3b, RF are all 34+ year old sluggers.  The defense is above average at C, SS and CF while below average at 2b and the corner OF positions.  The offense is driven by power and will hit plenty of HR.  The bench offers an offensive dropoff over the starters but a defensive upgrade.  Two true DH will platoon.Gail Latham is the highlight of the pitching staff.  6 members of the staff are 30+ years old.  The key beating them appears to be to load up with left handed bats.  This is a solid staff but not spectacular.  That said, no one gets as much from their pitchers as schedule1. The minor league system is incredibly deep considering the success of the franchise. 

 Ottawa Braves
Season 19 Record: 93-69
Budget for players: $85m with little room for movement.
Pitching Staff:  8 of 10
Offense:  6 of 10
Bench:  5 of 10
Defense: 9 of 10
Minor League Grade: D+
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes:  The team has some strong offensive performers.  Oswaldo Franco over a full season will add a few wins but hoping Shane Forrest will be anything other than mediocre is delusional.  The weak bats worry me more than the strong bats excite me.  The defense is the best I have reviewed so far.  The bench ios defensive insurance and there are no pinch hitters.  The pitchers are above average across the board.  I only see one guy I do not like and there are likely enough innings without him.  The minors are thin but there are a couple fringe guys.

 Cleveland Armpits
Season 19 Record: 91-71
Budget for players: $82M, about $20m in cap space.
Pitching Staff:  7 of 10
Offense:  7 of 10
Bench:  6 of 10
Defense: 4 of 10
Minor League Grade: C+
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes:  Only one catcher on the roster and he can only be expected to play about 75% of the games.  I assume the DH is a backup. Desi Arroyo is a ROY candidate and the Of is better than most.  The starters at the corner IF and OF spots have some defensive short comings and Arroyo's glove has room to grow.  The bench offers defense a few decent AB there as well.  The pitching staff is very good, a few all stars, but no dominating hall of famer.  Multiple pitching prospects and Peaches Knight is special.  The amazing thing about Knight is he was the 27th pick of the first round. No full time starters on the offensive side of things.

 Chicago Black Soxs
Season 19 Record: 88-74
Budget for players: $57m about 16 still available
Pitching Staff:  5 of 10
Offense:  7 of 10
Bench: 9 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+ (the depth of arms was too good to overturn the lack of positional types)
Divisional Finish: 4
Notes:  This team has no rsotered players listed as primary 1b or 2b and the RF are not really corner OF.  Defense is a focus here.  The offense is pretty solid, no weaknesses.  The most difficult part is trying to figure out who plays where.  No real backup for SS, CF or C (the backup C is listed as a C but is truely a DH).  There are 4 players with 80 plus power or projected to at least.  On the mound Tony Plata is nice.  Past him there are some decent arms and a few #5 starter types.  This is where this team is a level below the other 3 in the division.  In the minors there are at least 13 arms that will one day be in the majors including some very good all-star and hall of fame potential players.  The offensive stockpile is meager however with 3 potential major leaguers and no all star types, unless you include Buddy Bacsik who was an all star at one point.


 This was the best division I have seen from top to bottom so far and really if you flipped my predictions would not be overly shocked, well despite the shock of someone other than Syracuse winning for the first time.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Season 20 Preview: NL West

Colorado Fighting Bell Peppers
Season 19 Record: 73-89
Budget for players: $93
Pitching Staff:  4 of 10
Offense:  5 of 10
Bench:  of 10
Defense:  of 10
Minor League Grade: C+
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes:  14 offensive players may lead to a taxed pitching staff in Coors.  There are 3 1b and a 2b who is a liability with his bat and glove.  The SS is a strength. P.T. Belliard could be interesting to watch.  The pitching staff is all starters, not a single natural reliever.  Three of them strike me as slightly above average or better past them I see some ugly flaws.  The interesting part of the season will be when the Bell Peppers fall out of contention and people start making offers for Pascual Duran who is an FA after the season and finishing out his $100 contract.  Piper Fischbach is the only offensive prospect worth looking to closely at but his projected overall, according to my projections, are skewed by a crazy range.  There are lots of major league caliber pitchers in the minors.  This team's salary projected for next year is $65m less than this year.  This does not account for the minimum wage guys or the arbitration guys but there are some substation contracts coming off the books.

Las Vegas Rat Pack
Season 19 Record:63-99
Budget for players: $33m
Pitching Staff:  4 of 10
Offense:  2 of 10
Bench:  2 of 10
Defense:  4 of 10
Minor League Grade: B-
Divisional Finish: 4
Notes: This team is going to struggle to score runs. Jose Toca is going to be the leading run producer.  The three ss are all really strong defensively and there are worse offensive ss then these guys.  After them however the defense is suspect.  There are 14 pitchers on the staff and there are going to be some long nights.  The staff as a whole is average but the back end is weak, see Josh Dixon as an example.  In the minors I see two pitching prospects who may stick for an extended time in the majors with one being an all star more than once in his career. On the offensive side a see a few prospects who will make it,  in fact I would say there are 4 guys now who offer improvements over the major league roster.

Fresno Grizzlies
Season 19 Record: 83-79
Budget for players: $82m
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense: 6 of 10
Bench: 4 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: B
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes:  The postional players are pretty average across the board, no all stars but no schlups either with the exception being the CF.  If he starts in CF that is,Floyd Dixon is the alternative and would actually offer a defensive upgrade.  My Cy Young pick, Kevin Shigetoshi, is the highlight of the pitching staff.  Past him it is a roller coaster ride.  Pitching is a strength of the minor leagues as there are a ton of major league caliber arms.  On offense there are some decent guys who will help at the major league level.

Anaheim Ninja Turtles
Season 19 Record: 81-81
Budget for players: $88m
Pitching Staff:  4 of 10
Offense:  6 of 10
Bench: 7 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: C
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes: The lineup is a bunch of platoons to maximize match-ups.  Julio Iglesias is my candidate for MVP this season.  The defense is pretty solid.  The SS is slightly below average defensively.  The staff has 2 solid starters and then some question marks.  A few solid pitching prospects then a few pitching prospects with one flaw or another.  Offensive prospects are about the same as pitching, there are few of them and they are not all star types but they can contribute at the ML level.

Season 20 Preview: NL South

Tampa Bay Fighting Hamsters
Season 19 Record: 121-41
Pitching Staff:  10 of 10
Offense:  10 of 10
Bench: 10 of 10
Defense: 8 of 10
Minor League Grade: C-
Divisional Finish: 1
Notes: Every bench player could be a starter on other teams providing depth and flexibility.  The entire staff has 3 pitchers whose vr is under 80.  The biggest hole is that the only true catcher on the roster (pc 59) will only be able to start 100 games leaving a 29 pc catcher in charge of an unreal pitching staff.  Henry Rasmussen is available to catch if needed and he is stashed as a DH in AAA.  The three best "prospects" are all over 27 and the low minors appear to have little potential.  The $108m offers few resources to use for player development.

San Juan Wizards
Season 19 Record:53-109

Pitching Staff:  3 of 10
Offense:  4 of 10
Bench:  1 of 10
Defense: 4 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+
Divisional Finish: 4
Notes: Only 22 rosters spots are filled as of this writing. Carl Forbes as ace of the staff does not inspire confidence in a team that plays in a launching pad.  No one on the offensive side, except J.J. Ellis will see a winning record in SJ. 1b, 2b and P have multiple solid prospects on the way.  The one minor league criticism is a lack of diversity among offensive prospects.  The payroll is at $47m.

Huntington Deer Hunters
Season 19 Record:108-54

Pitching Staff:  9 of 10
Offense: 8  of 10
Bench: 8 of 10
Defense: 8 of 10
Minor League Grade: A
Divisional Finish:
Notes:  Any other division and these guys are the best team.  In this division they are 20 out, a wild card team and #5 seed.  Multiple all-stars and strong in each aspect of the game.  The minor leagues have several good prospects at multiple positions and lots of pitching.  The big question is how former #1 pick Homer Montgomery bounces back from a catastrophic shoulder injury. An $83m budget is at a crossroads, either players will need to move on or the budget will cross the line from development to big market.  The minor league depth indicates they could let some vets walk or trade them for prospects.

 Charleston Charge
Season 19 Record:71-91

Pitching Staff: 4 of 10
Offense: 7 of 10
Bench: 7 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: B-
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes:  Three guys on offense have a power ranking over 90.  The bench drops off from the starters, unlike Huntington and Tampa.  The defense is above average in some areas and slightly below average in the lesser positions.  I see what robot empahsizes amongst his pitchers and clearly he and I have different opinions on how to build a staff.  The hardest part in truely evaluating this staff is thinking about them facing the top two teams in the division. How did Steve Flynn throw 37 innings last season?  I am shocked he can pitch to over 1 batter a game. The minor leagues have several good prospects, starters, relievers, each offensive position. No future all stars but several solid long term contributors. The payroll is at $60m and shows Charleston is transitioning its team.

Division winner polls

I created two polls to vote on the division winners.  Once the division winners are voted on I will add playoff and world series polls.  Please add comments to the preview posts after voting.

Hr and World Series info

updated the HR leaders and World Series winners

Friday, February 11, 2011

Season Preview: NL East

Washington
Pitching Staff:  6 of 10
Offense:  5 of 10
Bench: 4 of 10
Defense: 5 of 10
Minor League Grade: B-
Divisional Finish: 3
Notes: 15 positional players and 10 pitchers (2 of whom are natural relievers) leads to some tired pitching arms very quickly.  The top 4 SP look good and the closer looks solid as well.  I would have rated the arms higher if there were 2 more of them, preferably for the bullpen.  There are not a lot of offensive prospects but the pitching ones look plentiful.

Atlanta

Pitching Staff:  4 of 10
Offense: 5 of 10
Bench: 10 of 10

Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: B-
Divisional Finish: 2
Notes:  This team is crazy.  They have 7 2b and 3 SS to go with 1 RF and 1 "C" who cannot call a game.  I have no idea who is playing where.  The bench should be flexible.  As of this writing there are still 3 open roster spots I assume are for pitchers.  The staff is short and will struggle even when complete.  The best reliever will need plenty of rest and may not exceed 48 IP.  The minors offer several good SS and 2b prospects who will fit well in the majors.  Several ML caliber pitchers under development.  No real all-star types however.

New York

Pitching Staff:  5 of 10
Offense: 4 of 10
Bench: 1 of 10

Defense: 5 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+
Divisional Finish: 4
Notes:  Only 10 positional players and 10 pitchers as of this writing.  Multiple value type players.  The AAA staff may be better right now than the major league staff.  A lot of future major league players with a couple really strong pitchers.  SP is an organizational depth.


St. Louis

Pitching Staff: 8 of 10
Offense: 6 of 10
Bench: 8 of 10

Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: B-
Divisional Finish:1
Notes: Last season's tandem rotation gives way to the Hybrid Tandem with 2 workhorse in the lead and 4 other pros who can go 4-5 a game.  Offense will be the issue of the team.  The roster offers a lot of positional flexibility.  They really need another run producer to be a serious threat.  The minor leagues a few potential major leaguers moving through including a couple future all stars.  Fewer offensive prospects.

Season 20 Preview: NL North

Detroit
Pitching Staff: 5 of 10
Offense: 4 of 10
Bench: 0 of 10
Defense: 10 of 10
Minor League Grade: D
Divisional Finish:
Notes: At the time of ranking the team has 5 open roster spots, that will address the bench concerns.  On offense I see 2 really good bats, 2 more solid bats, and then some big holes.  This team will struggle to score.  The pitching staff is comprised of several #3 starters and set up men. Not a lot of help on its way up from the minors.  Defense is the primary focus of development.

Chicago

Pitching Staff: 8 of 10
Offense: 9 of 10
Bench: 6 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade D+
Divisional Finish: 1st
Notes: This team is stacked from top to bottom.  Good flexibility on the offense, deep pitching staff, average defense that will not hurt the team, shut down closer.  The minors are a weakness, a couple offensive guys in the work, a few relievers and one potential backend starter

Hartford
Pitching Staff: 6 of 10
Offense: 7 of 10
Bench: 8 of 10
Defense: 7 of 10
Minor League Grade: B
Divisional Finish: 2nd
Notes: Best outfield in the division? I like Jimmie Flores good talent in CF.  Ronald Milton may be destined for 1b with Shannon Clark ready to play.  The minors are very top heavy with some real good talent.  The lower levels is thinner. This may end up as my darkhorse team.


Seattle

Pitching Staff: 2 of 10
Offense: 1 of 10
Bench: 1 of 10
Defense: 6 of 10
Minor League Grade: B+
Divisional Finish: 4th (potential 1st overall draft pick s21)

Notes:  I count 5 pitchers and 3 positional guys who could be reliable major leaguers The minors have multiple future all stars, as would be expected but the also have this guy Gus LaPorta, who is a turd of a #2 overall in last season's draft

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Hall of Fame Ballot

For my Hall of Fame ballot I voted for 5 candidates
1. Matty Dotel: See blog entry.  Best candidate on the ballot
2. Hawk Walker:  See blog entry.  If he is elected can I get a picture of the jersey to post to the blog?
3. Hanley Decker: I had not planned on voting for Hanley but his 2 Cy Youngs put him ahead of other pitchers.  He may have lost 1 major league year of the start of his career so 243 wins is pretty strong.
4.Willis Little :Saunders may have the saves record, Little was more dominant.
5.Sherman Lawton :See blog entry.

Other players I considered this season
1.Peter Belinda
2. Luis Johnson: See blog entry, I remebered him as being better than he was once I looked at the stats.  He was very good no doubt, but I am not sure if he did it long enough.
3.Alex Belliard: This guy did it all.  His career was just too short.
4. Timo Kondou is hurt too much by missing half his career to no generated stats.  If you double the stats he truely accumulated to cover ages 22-30 they would not be good enough in my eyes.
5. Brutus Bryant: I coveted Brutus.  He was a starter and a reliever.  The numbers are crazy when you look deeply at them.  I will likely vote for him and lobby for him next season.
6. Midre Aquino: Midre is another guy we know everything about.  His 2800+ K's are a big draw and his 200+ wins also draw attention.  He will be viewed kindly by history as 300 game winners become very rare and 250 wins becomes the magic number.
7. Russ Maurer: Maurer's are comparable to Aquino just a not as good.  Add in that he pitched 3 seasons in Coors and maybe there is something worth looking at.

Hall of Fame Candidate: Matty Dotel

Matty Dotel is another 1b and DH type.  The biggest difference between him and Belinda and Lawton is he actually made 5 all star games.  His whole career is accounted for after spending season 1 in AAA he came on season 2 to hit 43 home runs.  By the time he retired after season 19 he had compiled 704 home runs.  So how does he compare to Sherman Lawton since the home run totals are so close.  Dotel is #5 all time in the home run category.

The biggest difference is in the area of hits.  Dotel finished with 3061 hits, about 800 more than Dotel.  5 at bats shy of 10,000; almost 1800 runs; over 1900 RBI; a .951 career OPS.

He was one of the legendary hitters of HBD any player with 3000+ hits and 700 homers deserves to be in the Hall, regardless of position.

Hall of Fame Candidate: Stump May

I will begin with a definitive statement, Stump May is not a Hall of Famer.  He is worth talking about however because 80% of his games were played as a catcher (the pitching results are not pretty).  The hitting results however are awesome.  A career ops of .985 is about as good as it gets.  Comparing that to major league records he would come it at #10 all time between Ramirez and McGwire ahead of Musial, Mantle, DiMaggio.  The numbers are impressive.  He retired young (36) and really didn't start collecting real stats until he was 25, he has a few imaginary seasons.  402 homers though is way below what we are talking about (701 homers didn't get a vote last season!!!!).  The career numbers a fun to look at and he was a 5 time all star (as a horrible defensive catcher) but not Hall of Fame worthy.  Comparison?  I am not sure, and this is a stretch, but possibly imagine taking the 11 best years of Jason Giambi and forcing him to catch and you might have Stump May.

Hall of Fame Candidate: Peter Belinda

Peter Belinda's whole career is accounted for.  Like Lawton we do not have to use our imagination. Belinda is comparable to Lawton is a few ways, but almost a poor man's Sherman Lawton.  No Allstar appearances, instead of catcher as a secondary position his secondary position is 2b, where he was prett good.  His last season in the majors was still very productive.  Why did he retire?  He could have stuck around and added a few more homers to his 633 total but probably not enough to get to the 700 that Sherman has.  2158 hits is just a few less than Lawton and his .914 ops is a shade lower than Lawton.  I look over the stats and he almost reminds me of Carlos Delgado (who incidently came up as a catcher but played mostly as a 1b)  if I go with that comparison I may consider the closest comparison to Lawton to be Rafael Palmeiro...without the black cloud and a better secondary position.

Hall of Fame Candidate: Sherman Lawton

Sherman Lawton has 701 home runs.  That puts him at #6 all time.  His whole major league is accounted for so there is no need for an imagination.  Of those 701 home runs he only hit 82 during seasons 1 and 2.  The 35 during season 2 were his lowest single season total until season 14 when he was no longer a full time player.  His hit total is fairly low at 2244.

 Unlike the argument against Benito Romero and Luis Johnson, Lawton played the majority of his career in pitcher friendly LA.  His overall career OPS is .959.  This includes roughly a seasons worth of stats (accumulated over 3 seasons) during which he had an ops under .800.

So why has he gotten so little support so far?  Last season, his first season on the ballot, he got no votes.  Is it the anti-1b bias?  About 2/3 of his career games were played at 1b.  About another 1/3 of his games were spent playing catcher, where he had an catchers era of 4.09, but that is Los Angeles with Donnie Brown and Luis Johnson among others.  He did throw out just under 19% of potential base stealers.  How did he make only one all-star game?  Ask Marc Christman.

So who is he comparable to?  I could not think of anyone.  There is no one who played so much catcher in his career and hit so many home runs.  To me he is one of a kind and there were few players I feared playing against as much as him.

Hall of Fame Candidate: Luis Johnson

Luis Johnson's candidacy is less clear cut than Hawk Walker.

He has more career wins than Walker, at 196 but he also has 105 losses.  For his career he had a 1.19 era but 10 of his seasons came pitching in pitcher friendly parks in LA and SD. He has over 2000 career strikeouts but doesn't rank in the top 5 for career K's.  While Hawk could argue half a career of uncollected stats Johnson only has 4 missing seasons.  7 trips to the DL hurt his overall numbers.  6 all star appearances, 5 coming consecutively show an extended period of dominance (in LA and SD).  There is also one cy young and one World Series title.

To try and make sense of his candidacy I tried to find a career comparison.  I settled on Kevin Brown.  I then asked myself, does Kevin Brown belong in the hall of fame?

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Hall of Fame Candidate: Hawk Walker

Hawk Walker
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Age: 42B/T: L/L
Born: Holliday, TX
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Hawk Walker the name is legendary.  He was a ground breaker, scoring the first $20million  max contract.  He won the first world series in HBD history.  He won Cy Young in the AL during the first 2 seasons of Ruth World, during the "Steroids" Era.    131 wins in 11 recorded seasons, retiring at 42.A .236 career oav, .298 obp, .367 slg.  A career WHIP of 1.20 and 3.40 ERA.  These numbers over 11 HBD seasons also include 3 final seasons where he pitched a total of 176.1 ip and had 5 wins, mostly pitching out of the pen. In his career from age 31-39 he won 126 games, an average of 14 wins a season, while only losing under 5 games per season.  You can only imagine what the numbers would look like if he had stats for the 7 seasons he pitched in the majors before HBD was created.

So why hasn't he made it?  Only 1600 career IP, Only 131 career wins.  He is a victim of mid-career creation.  Last season he had 14 votes, is this the season?